The Problem with Most Football Rankings

Sports "Experts" often use subjective criteria and win/loss records to rank teams. This type of analysis can lead to inaccurate rankings in the NFL.

“The better football team does NOT always win.” This may sound like an obvious statement, but if you look at most "Power Rankings" and "Football Polls", the main criteria for the rankings are a team’s win/loss record once the season gets started. When the season gets a few early "upsets" where more talented teams lose, the traditional ranking systems start elevating less talented teams with good win/loss records even though they might not be as good a football team. This accounts for the virtual revolving door that you see this year with the college football rankings. Just yesterday, previously unbeaten South Florida that had risen to #2 in the rankings, lost to Rutgers. Now, as with so many number 1 and number 2 teams before them in this season, South Florida will drop in the rankings. Perhaps, in this case, the dropping in rank may be the right thing since South Florida only rose to that level because of upsets of powerhouse teams like LSU and USC. The same thing happens with most "Power Ranking" systems that rate NFL teams. The win/loss record dominates these subjectively generated lists where an "expert" opinion is heavily influenced by the win loss record. It’s safe to say that nobody is going to argue with the majority of the lists this week that rank the Patriots and Colts as 1 and 2. However, the questions about rankings arise when deciding where to place the 5-1 Packers. If you look at their win/loss record, traditional ranking experts say, “Well they beat the Eagles, Chargers, Redskins and Giants. Those are 4 pretty good teams so the Packers must be better right?” Sorry Packers’ fans, but not necessarily. Let’s remember that it was two muffed punts that made the difference in the Eagles game, a fumble recovery for a touchdown that solidified their win in the Redskins game, and two quick-strike touchdowns in the 4th quarter that gave them the win against the Chargers. When it comes down to bare data, it was only the Giants who were beaten soundly by the Packers. While the Packers have won games, and at this point they are sure to make the playoffs with their position in their division and conference, we still have to question some of the "Power Ranking" lists that rate them as high as a 5. PossessionPoints.com ranks teams based on their offensive and defensive performances which are key ingredients to consistently winning football. You won't find the Packers in the top 10 on this list; they are 14th because that is where their performance puts them. Don't get us wrong, we love the storyline developing around the "seasoned" Hall of Fame–bound Quarterback Brett Favre and a team full of otherwise young, very young and enthusiastic players. Their confidence from these early season wins may just be the impetus needed to propel them to more "performance" based wins like the one over the Giants. Even if they just continue to play the way they have been playing, we probably will still see them in the playoffs. With their defense leading the way, PossessionPoints.com is projecting that they will indeed win 13 games. If they do continue this confident play, they could earn a first-round bye and most likely a home field advantage in the playoffs. However, we must ask what happens if they don't keep playing as well? What if the breaks that have gone their way start going to their opponents? Will their confidence shake? Well, it might, especially since they don't have the solid performances in the past to build on like a team such as the Patriots. Donna Cavanagh